DRC Suspends Handmade Copper Business, SHFE Copper Rose Sharply Last Friday [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Monday, December 29, 2025
Futures: Affected by the Christmas holiday, LME copper was closed last Friday night. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper contract 2602 opened and touched a low at 98,310 yuan/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually moved upward, approaching 102,660 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 101,380 yuan/mt, an increase of 3.33%. Trading volume increased to 246,000 lots, and open interest increased by 942 lots to 253,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On December 26, the government of the DRC issued a new order suspending all manual copper and cobalt processing operations, requiring enterprises to provide proof of legal and traceable ore sources before resuming operations. This will affect the operations of a large number of local small and medium-sized processors and improve supply chain transparency.
(2) On December 26, US copper company Copper Quest announced the completion of the second and final financing package transaction, providing funding support for its development plan, highlighting the financing and expansion opportunities for small and medium-sized copper mine developers in the current high-price copper market.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of December 26, the SHFE copper 2601 contract broke the historical high again in early trading, rising to around 98,500 yuan/mt before the morning close. The inter-month price spread was basically between C220-C180. Looking ahead to this week, copper prices repeatedly hitting new highs have led to large-scale shutdowns of downstream furnaces and production. Consumption is expected to remain weak before the New Year's Day holiday. In a situation of weak supply and demand, spot premiums are more likely to fall than rise.
(2) Guangdong: On December 26, the spot price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract was at a discount of 240-170 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 205 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 320-300 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 310 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 97,745 yuan/mt, up 3,030 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 97,640 yuan/mt, up 3,030 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, the sharp rise in copper prices led to downstream inactivity, with purchasing sentiment dropping to 1.05, and spot premiums continued to decline.
(3) Imported copper: On December 26, warrant prices were $50-60/mt, QP January, the average price was flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $48-60/mt, QP January, the average price was flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $4-16/mt, QP January, the average price was flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late December and early to mid-January.
(4) Secondary copper: On December 26, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 98,110 yuan/mt, up 2,470 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -340 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials increased by 2,000 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 85,500-85,700 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,218 yuan/mt, up 274 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,220 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as overseas markets were experiencing the Christmas holiday and copper prices hit new highs again, traders of imported recycled copper raw materials reported almost no market transactions. With the upcoming New Year holiday, transactions in the overseas recycled copper raw materials market are expected to be sluggish in the next two weeks.
Price: On the macro front, although US-Ukraine peace talks were reportedly close to reaching a security agreement, core differences such as territory remained; domestically, China's Ministry of Finance clarified that next year it will implement a package of measures including expanding fiscal expenditure, promoting consumption, and stabilizing employment to boost the economy. Additionally, the continued weakening of the US dollar, combined with market concerns over copper supply in non-US regions, jointly drove copper prices to continue rising. On the fundamental side, the supply side showed a tight pattern, with suppliers generally reluctant to sell, leading to limited circulating supply in the market, particularly for high-quality copper which was relatively tight. On the demand side, demand was suppressed by the surge in copper prices, with downstream procurement sentiment cautious and overall consumption performance weak. Overall, copper prices were expected to maintain high levels and fluctuate rangebound today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]